As China’s Demand Fades, U.S. Pork Has Few Places Left to Turn
While swine lean meat finds new markets, offals like pig feet have nowhere to go in the U.S.
While swine lean meat finds new markets, offals like pig feet have nowhere to go in the U.S.
Pork is the backbone of Chinese diets - economical, protein-rich, and deeply cultural. From street-food dumplings to braised belly, it delivers accessible nutrition to hundreds of millions. Despite price fluctuations and modest declines in meat consumption share, as shown in a recent research, pork still accounts for over half of consumer meat expenditures in China.
In the past decade, the U.S. has been one of China's top pork suppliers, exporting both muscle meat and edible offals like pig feet. But that trade relationship is now under threat. After President Trump raised the total tariff to 104% on all Chinese imports, China retaliated with another round of tariff, resulting in a total 84% tariff on imported U.S. goods, according to the Office of the Tariff Commission of the State Council.
As uncertainty looms, the stakes are high for the U.S. pork industry under a volatile relationship between the U.S. and China.
The U.S. emerged as a top beneficiary during the African Swine Fever crisis between 2019 and 2020, when the supply shock turned China into the world’s largest pork importer overnight.
In 2020, U.S.’ exports of fresh, chilled and frozen pork meat peaked at 14% of China’s imports - briefly becoming its second-largest pork supplier after Spain.
But this boom is short-lived - U.S. share collapsed from 14% in 2020 to just 6% in 2024.
Brazil and Spain dominate the China market. “The U.S. now pays 25% higher duties than Brazil, also Brazil has lower production costs,” as noted by Professor Dermot Hayes, an agriculture economist from Iowa State University.
As China’s domestic pork supply recovered, slashing import demand. The total value of imports plummeted sharply, from 12 billion USD in 2020 to 2.1 billion in 2024.
“There has been an oversupply in the China pork market now,” said Dr. Chenjun Pan, a senior analyst for the Chinese agriculture section from Rabobank. As a result, she continued, “U.S. pork export gradually lost its market competitiveness.”
But when it comes to swine offals, the stakes are far higher, and the U.S. has far more to lose.
Despite trade tensions, the United States has remained a dominant supplier of pork offals to China in the last three years.
After a sharp decline from 2017 to 2019, U.S. exports rebounded strongly, surpassing Spain by 2021 and maintaining a stable share of around 28% through 2024.
For the U.S. pork industry, swine offals have offered a long-term economic opportunity. Beginning in 2020, more than half of that is dependent on Chinese consumption. In 2024, even with a slight drop in export, more than 60% of U.S. offal exports were still shipped to China.
If China further restricts imports - whether due to tariffs, political tensions, or self-sufficient production - the U.S. pork industry may face an unprecedented strike. A recent research by Dr. Luke revealed that 20% of total U.S. pork exports were in the form of variety meats in 2024.
“Losing the market in China can be detrimental,” Dr. Luke noted. Compared to other types of meat, pork is a major segment, accounting for a quarter of the entire meat export industry. Unlike lean cuts, offals have fewer alternative buyers and limited domestic demand.
In order to create an offet, the U.S. pork facilities may render the swine offals surplus into feed or dispose of them given that they are worth nothing domestically.
Or, they could seek new markets by lowering its selling prices. However, even if the U.S. pivots to smaller countries for exporting pork, no one can buy the volume that China usually buys, Dr. Luke explained.
“If there are already better markets,” Dr. Luke continued, “the U.S. would’ve done it.”
With China’s massive demand irreplaceable and offal markets shrinking, the U.S. pork export industry faces a looming crisis - one where tariffs could further destabilize an already vulnerable sector.